Drought Essay

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A drought is commonly understood as a prolonged and abnormally extreme dry spell in a region’s climate in which there is an extended absence of rains. In this vein, meteorologists define drought in terms of the extent and severity of rainfall deficiencies. Agriculturalists define drought in terms of its impact on agricultural production, while hydrologists compare ground water levels, and sociologists define it on social expectations and perceptions. The three main types of drought are: meteorological drought, which is brought about when there is a prolonged period with less than average rainfall; agricultural drought, which is defined as a condition when there is insufficient moisture for the raising of sufficient livestock or crops due either to soil conditions or the agricultural techniques under use, in spite of the fact that there may be adequate precipitation; and hydrological drought, which is brought about when the water reserves available in sources such as aquifers, lakes, and reservoirs falls below the statistical average because of overuse.

Several meteorological processes are responsible for causing drought conditions. Among these are periodic flaring of the sun known as sunspots, increases in atmospheric dust, the warming of the planet through increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and fluorocarbon emissions resulting in the greenhouse effect or global warming, and the effects of the El Nino-southern Oscillation (ENSO). Scientists have argued that in some areas of the world, there is a fairly regular 22-year rain/drought pattern. These scientists believe that this 22-year cycle is linked to sunspot patterns. Sunspots are huge magnetic storms on the sun’s surface. They have life spans of only a few days, yet, it is believed that they somehow affect the weather on earth by changing pressure and temperature conditions at the equator, which then results in droughts in certain parts of the world. It is known that sunspot activity reaches a maximum every 11 years. That 11-year pattern is thought to relate to the 22-year weather cycle on earth.

Atmospheric Dust

Another climatic phenomenon that is believed to result in drought is increased atmospheric dust. Winds at the desert margins spur vast amounts of dust into the air. The fine material is propelled into the atmosphere and transported long distances by the easterly winds as a long dust cloud. Such dust clouds have been observed off the coast of West Africa from satellites and space shuttles, extending far out into the Atlantic Ocean. Some of this dust can be blown all the way across the Atlantic into the Caribbean Islands. The dust layer high up in the atmosphere can hinder cumulus cloud formation because of the warm temperatures emanated by the dust layer as the sun heats it. Because of atmospheric dust, drought conditions might be experienced in regions where rain would usually have fallen.

The massive amounts of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and ozone) that are being spewed into the atmosphere due to recent increased human activity, and intercontinental pollution of the atmosphere with aerosols, can result in more frequent droughts. For example, there has been increased variability of the monsoon weather over the Indian subcontinent in recent decades. This is blamed on polluted “atmospheric brown clouds” traveling from one continent to another, which interact with oceanic warming, resulting in an increased frequency of drought conditions.

Scientists are currently generating large-scale models of the atmosphere called General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are composed of mathematical equations and relationships designed to simulate global atmospheric conditions and make projections of the future climate. These models indicate that, as a result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the average global temperature will increase 1.4-5.8 degrees C (2.52-10.44 degrees F) by 2100. With the projected global temperature increase, some scientists think that the global hydrological cycle will also intensify. Thus, the combined impacts of increased temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration will be increased snowmelt, runoff, and soil moisture conditions. These models further indicate that rainfall will increase at high latitudes and decrease at low and mid-latitudes where it is normally high. This will result in severe drought conditions in mid-continent regions.

El Nino

One other climatic feature that has been blamed for causing drought conditions, particularly in Africa and Australia, is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. ENSO events are major disturbances in the air pressure and surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the result of a cyclic warming and cooling of the surface ocean of the central and eastern Pacific. This region of the ocean is normally colder than its equatorial location would suggest, mainly due to the influence of northeasterly trade winds, a cold ocean current flowing up the coast of Chile, and to the upwelling of cold deep water off the coast of Peru. Periodically, the tropical sun warms these cold waters, causing the surface of the eastern and central Pacific to warm up in an El Nino event. This results in heavy rainfall in South America, but also in severe droughts in the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, extending as far south as the eastern coast of Australia and as far north as the Horn of Africa. The more intense the El Nino, the more intense and extensive the droughts in Africa and Australia become. The reverse phenomenon, the cooling of the eastern Pacific waters, is known as La Nina. The possible interrelationship between El Nino and global weather patterns, especially the simultaneous droughts in Russia, Africa, Australia, and Central America, was first realized in 1972-73.

On average, ENSO events take place every five years. The largest was recorded in 1982-83, and coincided with the major drought in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. The event in 1998, which resulted in massive droughts in southern Africa between 1998 and 2002, is believed to have also affected global weather patterns. In 1998, the southern portion of the United States experienced droughts. There were warm winters in the northeastern United States; at the same time, Alaska and British Columbia experienced unprecedented warm waters. However, it was unclear whether these events were related to the fading 1998 El Nino. Since the late 1950s, there have been several major El Nino events: 1957-58, 1965,1968-69, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1986-87,1991-92, 1994-95, and 1998-2001.

The 1982-83 El Nino was the strongest event during the 20th century, causing well over $8 billion dollars in damages worldwide. Australia experienced devastating drought and brush fires. There were massive crop failures in Indonesia and the Philippines followed by starvation. southern and eastern Africa experienced prolonged droughts resulting in disease, malnutrition, and untold deaths of livestock and people. Shortages of fresh water in India and Sri Lanka were commonplace due to drought. Across the Pacific, coral reefs died. Other parts of the world experienced devastating deluges. Tahiti experienced six cyclones. There were massive floods and mud/landslides in the Colorado River basin, Peru, and Ecuador. Downpours in the Gulf States caused extensive death and property damage. The fishingf industry in South America was devastated due to the decrease in nutrients off Peru, which meant fewer anchovy.

In some regions of the world, such as Africa, the American West, and Australia, drought is a recurring feature of the climate, with devastating consequences for human livelihoods. Drought can have social, environmental, and economic consequences. From an economic standpoint, water is crucial to the production of goods and services. In times of drought, national economic growth can be lost, resulting in the slowing of economic development. The quality of crops is often damaged with less food produced, less income for farmers, and increased prices for food. These economic hardships are often followed by high unemployment rates and refugee migrations.

Environmental consequences of drought can include reduced rangeland and forest productivity, reduced water levels, increased fire hazard, increased livestock and wildlife death rates, and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Although many of the consequences of drought are short term, environmental impacts might have long-term repercussions for the affected area. For example, species of animals can become extinct due to loss of important habitats such as wetlands, lakes, and vegetation. Social impacts include compromised health conditions, conflicts between water users, and reduced quality of life. During droughts, many people in less-developed parts of the world die of starvation and malnutrition. Many others migrate to areas outside the drought-affected location as refugees.

Major Droughts

Several major droughts have been recorded during the 20th century. In 1900, India experienced a major drought in which 250,000 to 3.25 million are estimated to have died due to starvation and disease. The former Soviet Union is said to have lost 250,000 to five million people from starvation during the 1921-22 drought that hit the Ukraine and Volga regions. Another major drought 1932-34 in the Ukraine, Kuban, and North Caucasus regions of the former Soviet Union killed an estimated five to 10 million people. In 1928-30, northwest China lost three million people due to a drought caused famine. Six years later, in 1936, another region of China (Sichuan Province) experienced the worst drought, which killed five million people and displaced over 34 million farmers. Between 1930 and 1937, the United States experienced three waves of drought referred to as the Dust Bowl. This series of droughts coincided with the Great Depression with severe consequences, resulting in entire districts of the American Great Plains being depopulated as people were forced to leave.

Millions of people and livestock have perished due to drought on the continent of Africa, particularly in drought-prone areas along the southern rim of the Sahara Desert known as the Sahel and in southern Africa. The 20th century has seen three major famines in northeastern Africa; in 1913-14, 1968-74, and 1982-84. In Australia, recurring drought has meant billions of dollars in losses due to livestock deaths. In 2000-05, a major drought struck large parts of Australia, and for the first time water scarcity began to affect the urban population with heavy restrictions on water usage. Some towns were forced to import water. Other cities along the coast began building desalination plants, and others contemplated using water recycled from sewage.

While drought cannot be reliably predicted, this climatic condition should not always lead to famine and starvation. Certain precautions and infrastructure can be put in place to minimize the impacts of drought, especially in drought-prone areas. Such infrastructure might include the construction of reservoirs for emergency water supplies, putting limits on settlement in drought-prone areas, and education about the dangers of overcropping and overgrazing. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has established a Famine Early Warning System for much of Africa, a system that collects meteorological and other data to monitor people’s access to food and to provide timely notice when a food crisis threatens the region. The International Weather and Climate Monitoring Project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce has extended the earlier USAID Famine Early Warning System to other parts of the world, which encompasses all of Africa, Afghanistan, Central America and the Caribbean, the Mekong River Basin, and much of southern Asia. The goal of the program is to provide weather and climate-related information to users within USAID, as well as organizations involved in providing humanitarian assistance.

Bibliography:

  1. W.M. Adams, S. Goudie, and A.R. Orme, The Physical Geography of Africa (Oxford University Press, 1996);
  2. Millard Burr and O. Collins, Requiem for the Sudan: War, Drought, and Disaster Relief on the Nile (Westview Press, 1995);
  3. L. Cooper, Dust to Eat: Drought and Depression in the 1930s (Clarion Books, 2004);
  4. F. Dolan, Drought: The Past, Present, and Future Enemy (F. Watts, 1990);
  5. M. Fratkin, Surviving Drought and Development: Ariaal Pastoralists of northern Kenya (Westview Press, 1991);
  6. H. Glantz, Drought and Hunger in Africa: Denying Famine a Future (Cambridge University Press, 1987);
  7. H. Glantz, “Drought in Africa,” Scientific American (v.256, 1987);
  8. H. Glantz, Drought Follows the Plow: Cultivating Marginal Areas (Cambridge University Press, 1994);
  9. T. Grove, The Changing Geography of Africa (Oxford University Press, 1994);
  10. Olsson, “On the Causes of Famine: Drought, Desertification and Market Failure in the Sudan,” Ambio (v.22/6, 1993);
  11. D. Schubert, et al., “Causes of Long-Term Drought in the U.S. Great Plains,” Journal of Climate (v.17/3, 2004);
  12. R. Ward, Water Wars: Drought, Flood, Folly, and the Politics of Thirst (Riverhead Books, 2002).

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