Monsoon Essay

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The word monsoon originates in the Arabic term mausem, which means season. Monsoon is generally used to refer to the seasonal change in wind patterns between land and ocean, usually associated with well-defined periods of heavy rainfall. While monsoons can occur in North America and Asia, the dramatic weather pattern in the Indian subcontinent (South Asia) is the more well-known monsoon; it largely affects India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These seasonal changes in wind and rain patterns are very distinct and the South Asian monsoon is generally associated with heavy rainfall in the summer (often accompanied by floods) and dry spells in the winter months. The spatial coverage and intensity of the South Asian monsoon is not seen in the other monsoons. Rainfall of up to 10,000 millimeters can be experienced in parts of India, and most of the annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season.

Monsoons occur due to the difference in specific heat of landmasses compared to oceans. In the summer, as land heats up faster than ocean water, the heat causes air to rise above landmasses, producing a system of low pressure. Air from the ocean moves in, and brings with it high moisture content. The difference in temperature between land and sea can be up to 20 degrees C. In the winter, as oceans retain more warmth and land cools down faster, the reverse occurs and wind blows from land to sea. In the South Asian monsoon, the summer monsoon (June-September) involves winds blowing landward from the southwest (Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal) bringing considerable cloud cover and rainfall; while the winter monsoon (December-March) is a dry period with winds blowing in the opposite direction from the northeast toward the ocean. Monsoons can thus be thought of as very large, constant, and powerful sea breezes, involving large landmasses and oceans, forming one of the more enduring weather patterns seen.

Forecasting the arrival and retreat of monsoon fronts is important for societies in monsoon-dependent areas. It is important to understand regional differences and specificities in order to analyze, model, and forecast local weather patterns and implications of climate shifts. Monsoons can vary by time of onset and withdrawal, frequencies and intensities of storms, spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, duration and timing of monsoon “breaks” (i.e., days without rain), and tele-connection to larger systems of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monsoons are thus linked to broader patterns such as the ENSO, but also to more local patterns such as the formation of tropical cyclones (typhoons or hurricanes), which are most common in the preand post-monsoon times (i.e., just before the monsoon front moves in and after it retreats, in the months of April-May and October-November, respectively). Tropical cyclones form over oceans and move landward, often bringing with them heavy rainfall, gusts, and storm surges.

The advent of monsoons in South Asia is generally associated with much-needed rain as a welcome relief from the dry heat, as well as for agricultural production that depends on the rains. Monsoons have inspired poetry and literature, and the seasons are an integral part of life and culture. As clouds roll in, rain is often welcomed with ceremonies.

Drought can seriously affect agricultural production, which is the mainstay of livelihoods of much of the South Asian population. The prolonged and heavy rainfall, however, can also lead to floods and ensuing damage and destruction. Rainfall and swollen rivers (from both rainfall and increased summer melting of Himalayan glaciers that feed the rivers) can result in devastating floods that cause damage to lives and property and displace millions of people. For instance, the devastating floods in Bangladesh in 1987 and 1988 resulted in most of the country being submerged under water for months, causing considerable suffering and loss to agriculture, industry, and homes, as well as to the economy. Heavy rainfall in general can also make life and business come to a standstill for days in most parts of South Asia. Monsoonal climates generally result in some levels of adaptation, but the inherent variability of the system means that it is difficult to predict when rain will occur or when floods may ensue and with what intensity. As such, South Asian societies are heavily dependent on and influenced by the monsoonal climatic system.

In the United States, the monsoon season is generally between June-September, and affects the southwestern part of the country. It is generally known as the North American monsoon, but is often also called the southwest monsoon. The moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico brings with it rainfall, and there are associated thunderstorms in the southwestern deserts as well as the areas around the Rocky Mountains. While this monsoonal system is less pronounced and intense than the South Asian monsoon, it is still a distinct seasonal climatic system.

According to scientists, climate change is likely to affect monsoon systems. Climate simulation models predict that climate change from global warming will lead to increased rainfall; heavier storms; floods from rain and melting snowcaps/ glaciers; increasing intensity of tropical cyclones; and changes in the monsoon-ENSO connection. Such changes are likely to affect localized weather patterns considerably in monsoonal zones. The increased sea surface temperature, as well as mean air temperature, will likely lead to greater events of extreme tropical cyclones (and associated storm surges) as well as flooding in the Indian subcontinent. This is assumed to be a result of greater temperatures leading to greater moisture, which will lead to a more intense hydrological cycle, and thus greater monsoons. Climate variability is thus likely to result in greater floods and droughts that may make short-term forecasts difficult and adaptation harder. Climate forecast models can predict certain trends but both shortand medium-term changes can be unpredictable.

With large populations in the tropical and temperate monsoon areas directly dependent on land and water resources for lives and livelihoods, changes in monsoonal patterns thus pose a greater concern to these societies. A dramatic change in monsoon cycles, or advent of monsoon rains themselves, can result in failures of the agricultural production cycle dependent on the monsoons. Increasing floods and tropical cyclones also pose threats to people living in coastal areas and floodplains along the hundreds of rivers that exist in South Asia; and high levels of poverty and lack of access to forecast information further compound the ways by which monsoonal unpredictability can affect lives and livelihoods.

Bibliography:

  1. P. Chang, B. Wang, and N.C. Lau, eds., The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (WMO/TD, 2005);
  2. S. Fein and P.L. Stephens, eds., Monsoons (John Wiley & Sons, 1987);
  3. Alexander Frater, Chasing the Monsoon (Picador Press, 2005);
  4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “IPCC Special Report on The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability,” www.grida.no;
  5. P.J. Webster, “Monsoons: Processes, Predictability, and the Prospects for Prediction,” Journal of Geophysical Research (v.103, 1998);
  6. World Meteorological Organization, “No. 1266,” www.wmo.int.

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