Future Of Democracy Essay ⋆ Political Science Essay Examples ⋆ EssayEmpire

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In the aftermath of the cold war, democracy became the most common form of government in the world. Policy makers, the general public, and scholars—especially those who followed arguments such as Francis Fukuyama’s in his book, The End of History and the Last Man—embraced the notion that the end of the superpower conflict marked the triumph of liberal democracy as the preferred form of government and the means by which many of the globe’s economic and social problems would be ameliorated. Although democratic revolutions transformed regions such as Eastern Europe, as of the early twenty-first century, democracy had failed to achieve its promise or potential in many states. Such disappointments highlighted current challenges within representative systems and obstacles to the future spread of democracy. The success of democratization in the Middle East and the ability of large developing countries like China to succeed in establishing full democracy are at the forefront of current debates on the future utility of the concept.

Democracy And Its Discontents

Modern democracies are typically based on representative models in which citizens elect deputies to debate and decide policy choices on their behalf. Full democracies are those systems in which there are universal suffrage, regular elections, an independent judiciary, relatively equal access to power for all groups, and extensive civil liberties that are combined with protection for minorities and disadvantaged groups.

Some states have met with repeated obstacles as they endeavor to implement democratic systems, while others have established “illiberal” or partial democracies as discussed by Fareed Zakaria in The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. Although these systems hold elections, basic civil liberties and governmental transparency may lack. Even in today’s full democracies, there are a wide range of continuing problems in securing minority rights and expanding economic, social, and political access to disadvantaged members of society. Furthermore, many freedoms that form the core of democratic systems have prompted societal backlashes over the perceived erosion of values and morals, especially in cases in which governments attempt to balance the rights of the individual with the common good of society. Finally, security threats, including terrorism, have prompted many democratic states to adopt measures that limit individual and collective freedoms, particularly after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States and subsequent bombings in Spain and the United Kingdom.

After the cold war, many countries faced similar problems as they transitioned to democratic systems. First, societies had to be reoriented toward democracy after decades or centuries of totalitarian rule. In many states, efforts to protect minority groups were limited in scope. For instance, ethnic Russians faced discrimination in many of the states of Eastern Europe. Second, along with government reforms came economic reorientations as states embraced the free market. Often this caused widespread unemployment and social disruption. Third, the elites who had dominated societies under antidemocratic systems were often able to retain a disproportionate amount of economic and political power through political organizations and power networks. The former officials usually did not embrace democracy and instead undermined democratic reforms. Fourth, many states, notably Russia, lost international power and prestige, even as other nations lost aid or assistance from the superpowers. This combination of factors impeded the functioning of new democracies and undermined public confidence in the new systems. One result is that citizens in transitional democracies often support undemocratic measures or political movements because of their impatience with the inability of democratic governments to provide for the common good of all people.

Such disillusionment can be overcome through a variety of means. States that are most likely to successfully transition to full democracies usually meet five criteria as identified by Samuel Huntington. These are past democratization efforts; a comparatively high and relatively equal level of economic development; outside support for democracy by international actors and neighboring states; reforms efforts during a worldwide “wave” of democracy; and a peaceful, rather than violent, installation of a democratic government. Hence, the states of Eastern Europe, many that had a history of democratic government and significant levels of economic development, were able to transition relatively smoothly as a result of significant internal support for democracy and diplomatic and economic assistance from neighboring states in Europe as well as the United States and the European community. Absent such factors, states face a much more difficult transition. China, for example, failed to embrace democracy and instead launched a broad crackdown during the 1989 prodemocratic demonstrations in Tiananmen Square.

Huntington’s thesis is that states tend to democratize in waves (he identifies three waves, 1828–1926, 1943–1962, and 1974–1990) and that reverse waves following these periods of democratization often undermine fledgling democracies.

Consequently, a new wave would be necessary to spread democracy in the post–9/11 era. There are a range of criticisms of Huntington’s argument, especially over how democracies are defined, for instance, whether many of the newer democracies in the third wave emerged as full democracies. Scholars such as Fareed Zakaria and Larry J. Diamond argue that the current period reflects a rise in pseudo democracies that are exemplified by states such as Pakistan, the Philippines, and Venezuela. In addition, in the 2000s, antidemocratic trends in countries in Latin American and Africa underscored the need for greater economic and social equality to forestall reverse democratic waves.

In the current period, one test for democracy will be its success or failure in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq after the 2003 United States–led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime. Under the Bush Doctrine, the U.S. government actively promoted democratization in Iraq and concurrently in Lebanon, but whether or not Western-style democracy will flourish in the region remains to be seen. The world’s attention will be focused on the Middle East in determining the future malleability of democracy around the globe.

Democracy And Equality

Questions over the future of democracy are not limited to concerns over the ability of new states to transition from authoritative regimes. Even within full, mature democracies, there continue to be deep disparities in economic and social status. Many democracies have experimented with various forms of affirmative action—economic, social, or political preferences—to improve the status of marginalized groups. For instance, in the past two decades the European Union (EU) has initiated system wide affirmative action programs to ensure women have more political power, while the United States began programs during the 1960s to improve the economic condition of minority groups and women and continues to enact and debate such legislation. Critics of affirmative action argue that such programs exacerbate tensions between groups and fuel the rise of antidemocratic sentiments among majority populations.

Citizen participation in the democratic process has declined significantly in many full democracies. This trend is especially apparent with the rise of voter apathy. Voter turnout has been on the decline in Europe, Japan, and the United States since the 1970s, with the greatest drop in the United States. Compulsory voting laws have limited declines in turnout in states such as Australia, Argentina, Belgium, Greece, and Singapore, which average more than 95 percent turnout during balloting. Disconnectedness between voters and government is often cited as the main reason for apathy and has led some democracies to experiment with new systems of combined proportional and single-candidate balloting. Meanwhile, there have been repeated efforts to reform the Electoral College and winner-take-all system in the United States, but none have made significant progress at the federal level.

Although democracy as a governmental form continues to face a variety of challenges, the spread of the system tends to reinforce trends toward representative government. Support from established democracies, including election assistance and requirements that states be democracies in order to join organizations such as the EU or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, have proved effective aids in the democratic transition. However, the success of such inducements highlights the need for further regional support for democratic transitions in order to secure the future of democracy.

Bibliography:

Carothers,Thomas, and Marina Ottaway, eds. Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005.
Diamond, Larry J. “Is the Third Wave Over?” Journal of Democracy 7, no. 3 (July 1996): 20–37.
Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History and the Last Man. New York: Free Press, 1992.
Huntington, Samuel P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.
Linz, Juan, and Alfred Stepan. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996.
Maier, Charles S. 1994. “Democracy and Its Discontents.” Foreign Affairs 73, no. 4 (July/August 1996): 48–64.
Zakaria, Fareed. The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. New York:W.W. Norton, 2004.