Inference Essay ⋆ Political Science Essay Examples ⋆ EssayEmpire

Inferential techniques allow researchers to learn something about unknown phenomena from known evidence or data. There are chiefly two types of inference: descriptive inference involves extracting useful explanations from masses of evidence; causal inference pinpoints the explanatory factors, frequently suggested by theory, underlying the available data or evidence. Scientific inference, and prediction thereof, usually deploys causal hypothesis testing in which a set of factors accounts for possible outcomes under particular conditions. The fundamental problem of causal inference describes the uncertainty regarding the underlying explanatory factors’ being the real causes of the outcomes described. Both supporters and critics of inferential techniques note the influence of omitted factors or variables, difficulty of measuring what is being measured (problems of validity), and impossibility of ever knowing that the same causal factors caused the outcome over and over given that exact experiments cannot be repeated under real-world conditions (problems of reliability). Methodologists argue that many of these problems can be dealt with by increasing the set of data observations available to make inferences. In their view, expansive data sets will minimize random variations (noise). Critics of inference, nevertheless, argue that alternative techniques such as use of rich contextual information (as in anthropology, e.g.) and path dependence (as in psychoanalysis) are equally good, if not better, techniques for building theory.

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