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Political forecasting identifies political phenomena that may occur at a later point in time, whether specific events or conditions in the broader political milieu. The forecasts that result may provide (1) estimates of a predicted event’s magnitude, through point forecasts, such as the percentage vote that a candidate is expected to receive in an upcoming election; (2) estimates of the probability that an event will occur, such as the likelihood of an international crisis erupting; and (3) scenarios of the future, which specify alternative outcomes that are conceivable and the intervening circumstances necessary for each outcome to occur, such as alternative configurations of power that might exist among nations in twenty years.

Retrospective And Prospective Forecasting

Although political forecasting anticipates the future, future has different meanings. In fact, political forecasting encompasses predicting political phenomena in the past. For example, data from one decade might be used to create a statistical model of conflict in the Middle East, which then is used to predict outcomes in a later decade in the past. In this useful procedure for testing hypotheses, the future is from the perspective of the original period on which the model is based. The results are retrospective forecasts, ex post forecasts, or post-diction.

Predicting the actual future is termed “prospective forecasting,” “ex ante forecasting,” or “pre-diction.” These forecasts may be useful in testing models and hypotheses, like retrospective forecasts. But by attempting to predict the current future, prospective forecasts have an additional practical value. For example, knowing the likely income from government revenues next year is useful, regardless of whether the forecast tests a hypothesis. This applied dimension of prospective political forecasting has led to criticism by political scientists who contend that an activity that does not contribute to understanding political phenomena lacks scholarly value. In practice, however, usually there is a theoretical underpinning to prospective forecasts because many applied forecasters are scholars whose theoretical knowledge of the subject informs their forecasts.

Subjects Of Political Forecasts

Most political forecasting to date has focused on three subjects: (1) elections, (2) interstate and domestic political conflict, and (3) government revenues.

Elections

Forecasts of the popular vote in U.S. presidential elections have been made by random-sample campaign polls since 1936. Polls were joined by a judgment-based index technique in 1982, by regression forecasts also in 1982, by futures markets for elections in 1988, and by Delphi surveys of experts and combining forecasts in 2004. All of these techniques usually have predicted the election winner correctly, with the 13 Keys index having a perfect record. Forecasts of the percentage vote have varied in accuracy, depending on the method and election year. The elections futures market at the University of Iowa appears to have been the most consistently accurate over time.

Forecasts of the U.S. electoral college vote, most of which are compilations of state forecasts, have appeared less frequently and have had variable accuracy. Beyond U.S. presidential election outcomes, prospective forecasts have been made of party nominations for president, of congressional election results, and of results in parliamentary and presidential elections in Europe and elsewhere.

Conflict

Political forecasters also have been active in predicting domestic political conflict, primarily in developing countries, and conflict among nation-states. Forecasts of domestic conflict have predicted forms of internal political instability, such as riots and military coups, as well as larger societal collapses (state failure), including civil wars and revolutions. Forecasts of conflict between nation-states have focused mostly on crises and wars. More recently, predicting attacks by no state terrorist groups has gained increased attention. In practice, the lines between intrastate and interstate forecasting have become blur red in part because some phenomena have aspects of both, such as external interference in civil wars.

Conflict forecasting often has a policy motivation. Major academic projects in this field have been funded by government agencies, and some conflict forecasting is undertaken by agencies in-house, especially within intelligence and defense organizations, to support policy requirements. In fact, much of conflict forecasting is conducted under the banner of early warning, a term that implies there is a policy response to the warning.

Government Revenues

Because every unit of government is dependent on tax revenues and must produce budgets for the future, revenue forecasting is important at all levels of government. The volume of government revenue forecasts in the United States is large, owing to the thousands of municipal governments that exist in the country. In the many smaller municipalities, revenue forecasts often are limited to the impressionistic judgment of local officials. By contrast, forecasting revenues for the U.S. federal government is a complex quantitative process undertaken by the Congressional Budget Office and executive organizations, notably the Office of Management and Budget and the Treasury. At the state level, revenue forecasts usually are produced in the state finance office or similar organization by economists who use systematic forecasting methods and who sometimes draw on expertise in state universities.

Revenue forecasts often are significantly inaccurate. Much of this error is due to the difficulty of the forecasting task, but political influences and other biases may play a part. An administration that favors increased spending has an incentive to overestimate revenues to bolster the argument that new programs are affordable. An administration that favors reducing taxes may also overestimate revenues to justify tax cuts. At the state level, where the government budget must be balanced, forecasting agencies usually underestimate revenues, particularly exercising caution toward uncertain revenue sources.

Other Subjects

Predicting changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy has long occupied many government, business, and academic analysts. Other more limited political forecasting activity has included predicting (1) the outcome of U.S. Supreme Court cases, (2) Senate votes to confirm Supreme Court nominees, (3) the performance of the president, (4) congressional support for legislative positions taken by the president, (5) the length of the Iraq War (2003– ), (6) the likelihood of Quebec’s seceding from Canada, and (7) the probability of political occurrences abroad that are detrimental to domestic companies’ foreign investments.

Conclusion

Although underappreciated within political science in the past, political forecasting is gaining increased recognition for bringing rigor to hypothesis testing and for contributing to the policy requirements of government. Growing support for forecasting is evident in the formation of the Political Forecasting Group and its designation in 2006 as a Related Group of the American Political Science Association.

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