Simulation Essay

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Simulations comprise a methodology that can assist researchers investigating the interplay between multiple agents and a simulated environment. Both individual agents and their synthesized environment are artificial.

Simulated agents imitate the natural appearances or behaviors that are important to a researcher. The programmed characteristics of agents include rules, goals, and allowed adaptations within the environment. Similarly, the programmed environment includes any variations and constraints important to a researcher.

In political science, simulations add value in two ways. First, confirmatory simulations can test theories by contrasting predictions with observations of actual phenomena.

Second, exploratory simulations can extend existing knowledge by observing simulated results obtained from past data or known relationships between agents and their environment. When simulating phenomena, a researcher must balance between parsimony and fidelity. Increased simulation fidelity often is associated with increased complexity. Simulations should focus on high fidelity specific to the important elements of a research investigation.

Simulations serve as explanatory and predictive tools for political scientists, benefiting both theoretical and policy related inquiries. Confirmatory simulations can (1) define individual agent goals and compare emergent, group-level behaviors against empirical observations or (2) define group level goals and compare emergent, individual behaviors against empirical observations. Exploratory simulations can employ knowledge of past data, agent behaviors, group goals, or environmental constraints to make predictions regarding future interventions or policies.

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